On August 24, 2021, Ms. Peisha Bryan-Lee of the Vision 2030 Jamaica Secretariat sat down (virtually) with Mr. Joseph Cox a Jamaican economist working in the CARICOM Secretariat, Guyana to discuss his new book, “The New Normal: A Post-COVID Primer for Business”.  In the interview, which lasted over an hour, Mr. Cox discussed the considerations that informed the focus and approach to the publication as well as main content areas. 

Peisha Bryan-Lee:  Mr. Cox, the author listing for your publication states Joseph B. B. Cox.  Please tell us what the B.B. stand for?

Joseph Cox: (laughs) For the record, my name is Joseph Benjamin Burke Cox.

Peisha Bryan-Lee: Please tell us a bit about your work – your responsibilities and portfolio.

Joseph Cox: Currently, I am the Assistant Secretary General for Trade and Economic Integration at the CARICOM Secretariat based in Georgetown, Guyana. My portfolio covers several areas, including economic development, CARICOM Single Market Economy (CSME), Customs and Trade, Transportation, ICT, Energy, Services, Agriculture, and I am sure that there are things that I am forgetting, but that is what comes to mind right now.  It is a wide remit.

Peisha Bryan-Lee:  This seems like you cover the entire Goal 3 (Jamaica’s economy is prosperous) under Vision 2030 Jamaica. 

Joseph Cox:  Yes, it is a wide remit.  To best utilize our resources, we focus on the policy level, rather than implementation.  We use several modalities such as Policy Guidance Notes; direct interventions with member states; and extensive use of our organs, including the powerful Council for Trade and Economic Development (COTED) which has 8 iterations^[1].  The COTED is used to engage the public and private sectors at the national level.  One of the agendas that have been advanced is the reintegration of the private sector into the process, through the CARICOM Private Sector Organization (CPSO).  The CPSO is a designated Associate Institution of the Community.  We use all the possible levers that we can to effect change along the continuum of development.

Peisha Bryan-Lee:  It is well established that there are policy coherence issues within states – and it is an area of concern. What challenges do you face regarding policy coherence across states?  What are the considerations that inform efforts to achieve policy coherence at the regional level?

Joseph Cox: Policy coherence is critical, and it is a challenge.  One of the ways to address the challenges (associated with policy coherence) is to increase the frequency of dialogue. What I found when I came here (CARICOM Secretariat) is that the COTED would only meet two (2) times per year. Through collaboration with member states, we have increased the number of meetings. We even had nine (9) such meetings in one year. 

Enhanced engagement and dialogue allows you to navigate the “choppy waters” you will face.  Now, do you completely address all those issues (associated with policy coherence)? Of course not!  

In the case of CARICOM, we are looking at 15 different member states at different stages of development – some are more advanced than others and there are different structural dynamics within countries. Engagement facilitates a better understanding of how to nuance policy and how to treat with development. For example, in looking at COVID, one of the fundamental issues, is the need for a structural re-orientation of the economies. What we found is that the economies were largely dependent on 1 or 2 primary sectors and once there was fall-out from that, there was immense fall-out in the countries.  You will see a structural shift over the medium- to long- term with persons assessing the challenges faced during this particular period as well as recognition of the inherent dangers (associated with the structure of the economies and businesses).  So, you will find it easier to introduce certain kinds of policies towards reorienting the economic space. 

Peisha Bryan-Lee: Thank you for that useful response. Now, let us move unto your new book “The New Normal…”.  Please introduce the book and provide us with a bit of a background. How did you come to decide to write the book and how did you determine which areas to cover in the book? What were the considerations, influences or evidence that informed your approach?

Joseph Cox: The name of the publication is “The New Normal: A Post-COVID Primer for Business”.  What the book seeks to do or has done, in my humble opinion, is serve as a Primer.  It identifies some of the immediate challenges that businesses will face in the regional and global marketplace and provides a guide for effecting strategic pivots to navigate the new operating environment and ethos, to remain relevant and profitable.

Several challenges are being faced, including supply chain disruptions, and some companies have had to change their business models in response to a reality that says ‘if you do not adapt and innovate, you will stagnate and die’.  The book seeks to give people a blueprint to deal with some of these issues. The book covers areas such as how to restart in business, including starting a new enterprise. We are seeing in the community where many entities believe that once they cease operations in an enterprise that their fiduciary responsibilities end, while this is not so. Many of these obligations are not statute barred and so they will carry these obligations for decades while accruing interest and other penalties. The book also looks at issues of business continuity; asset management towards optimizing asset utilization; human resource management including staff retention; communication, marketing and strengthening consumer engagement; and the business of the state.

In the “new normal”, the state has a responsibility in creating the operating platform for businesses to function and the private sector has a complementary role in executing their businesses in the facilitatory environment. This includes from the part of the state, tax reform, digitalization – how the state ensures that it creates the necessary environment.

Also, ICT has transitioned from support service to principal driver.  Our consultations through COTED showed that a lot of businesses throughout the region, did not have a website. In the early days of the pandemic, the principal beneficiaries of electronic commerce in the region, were the US, Canada, UK, China etc. This was not owing to a lack of capacity to address supply chain disruptions etc., this was largely due to a lack of web presence, with presence limited to social media such as Facebook, in many instances. We are looking at changing demographics and demand for instant communication. Sixty (60) per cent of the region’s population is under the age of 40. I had to take into consideration the driving forces and seamless transition points for businesses to cater to the younger groups who have greater spending power.

How does a business position itself to take advantage of the opportunities? The demand by younger groups for omni-channel options from businesses is among the issues that have to be considered in answering this question. 

An important consideration is that data analytics is being used to develop information on individual consumer behaviour. This is done through curating and mining data on past behaviour/consumer history to inform tailored marketing and the production of goods and services to meet individual consumer needs.  

Peisha Bryan-Lee:  Following up on the matter of data – my search showed that you mentioned data approximately 55 times. I am also interested in exploring the subject of the relationship between businesses and state governance. How do we balance understanding “my business and understanding how the state works”? I had a conversation with the owner of a business that has been around for decades and the business owner had no appreciation for public policy, the tenets of macro-economic stability, and the implications for the business.  The business owner seemed content in the belief that there was an understanding of customers and their demand. 

Joseph Cox:  I would ask if the business owner ‘really knows’ the business or simply believes so. If you do not have market data, you will eventually run into problems. Times and taste change. When I view Westerns, we see the changes in mode of transportation. The last person who made a horse drawn carriage, possibly made the best one ever, yet that made no difference because it was overtaken by the internal combustion engine.

Peisha Bryan-Lee:  In the conversation with the business owner, it was evident that there was little to no interest in the politics of the economy or how the state is governed. However, if things go wrong, government is believed to be accountable even if persons are unaware of the policies etc. that they should be holding government accountable for. 

Joseph Cox:  The whole essence of how we operate these days is that the state is a facilitator and should create the environment for businesses – provide basic infrastructure and develop policy, among other areas. The business is responsible to make decisions that optimize its competitiveness.  For example, a business in engaging state policy, which allows the purchase of aged equipment, chooses to purchase aged equipment solely based on purchase cost considerations. It does not include considerations for maintenance and replacement costs which eventually makes the purchase one that undermines the viability of the business.  The responsibility for the decision and its consequences falls under the remit of the business, not government.

We also need to bear in mind that the only constant is a process of change – if you do not respond to these changes, your business will lose competitiveness. We operate in markets that largely have thin margins and so businesses are required to retool and reengineer to navigate the new normal.

Peisha Bryan-Lee:  How do we help businesses to understand and respond to the complexities of the evolving business environment? Is there any dialogue in the policy space on how we can help businesses to use information and become information literate, for example? 

Joseph Cox: Dialogue and capacity building is necessary. Through webinars and other virtual engagements, we intend to go across the region and engage businesses on various topics, covered in the book, that are relevant to their operations and opportunities for growth. The question to be asked is: are you ready for the new operating environment? The sessions will seek to engage businesses in responding to this question and crafting solutions to challenges.

Peisha Bryan-Lee:  Let us return to the subject of data. How do we engage data (in businesses)?

Joseph Cox: Data is essential.  Data will inform determinations of actual demand for product, and the demographic profile of potential customers.  It will inform answers to the questions: who are your main competitors, what is your niche and value added, and what are your production dynamics?

Peisha Bryan-Lee: Leading from that, how do I navigate the uncertainty of the post-COVID business environment? COVID-19 has invalidated or made less relevant many of the assumptions that inform projections.  It has also led to supply chain disruptions and changing demand. How do we navigate all this and ensure business competitiveness, including for those who are not tech savvy?

Joseph Cox: Customer engagement is important.  If you are not tech savvy, you need to engage existing customers to determine what products and services are demanded.  You have to be nimble.

Peisha Bryan-Lee: How do we go about effectively engaging customers?

Joseph Cox:  You must be customer-centric. You need to be able to monetize what you offer and have customers to have a business. You need to look at the strategic benefits (of what you offer) to your customers.  There are benefits to knowing your customers. 

You need to determine your brand purpose, brand identity and brand position to develop a targeted and clear marketing strategy. What makes you special? How do you differentiate your product? What is your value added? Why you? 

You may also need to reskill or upskill your staff to meet evolving needs. Businesses need to be nimble and apply data to meet changing demand.

Peisha Bryan-Lee: In your book, you discussed the importance of internal and external customers.  Could you delve into that subject, a bit?

Joseph Cox: Customer engagement is important. An area that is being increasingly overlooked is that of the importance of establishing “connections” during contact with customers. This relates to, among other areas, how contact/engagement with customers is structured. One of the mistakes that companies often make is to automate and/or outsource their customer service, which is the first point of contact, without due consideration for how this will impact customer relations and retention. 

Peisha Bryan-Lee:  That is a concern for me as a customer. It leads me to think about discussions around the future of work and the implications of automation and technology broadly.  I recall seeing in the media discussions around the implications of the pandemic on the survival of what are called “Mom and Pop” shops in the United States and what we would call family owned community shops or corner shops in Jamaica. People go to these establishments in part owing to the familiarity and sense of continuity around them.  What is the future for these establishments?  

Joseph Cox: “Mom and Pop” stores will survive at least over the medium term, mainly because of factors such as familiarity and convenience. However, unless they adapt to the changing operating ethos over time, several may become marginalised as larger establishments in relatively close geographical proximity or with virtual offerings and with higher service levels, encroach or completely envelop their market niche.

Also, the COVID-19 new normal does not necessitate lack of social interaction.  Drive-in concerts, for example, allow for social interaction and social distancing. Virtual engagements do not have to be impersonal.  We (Joseph/Peisha) are about a thousand miles apart and yet it feels like you are in the chair in front of me.

Peisha Bryan-Lee:  I was speaking with a colleague this morning about lags in our adaptation to the virtual environment. We were discussing having lunch on Zoom as a means of simulating our “regular” day to day interactions.

Joseph Cox:  I have participated in virtual informal gatherings with my staff here at CARICOM as part of adapting to the new normal. These interactions are focused on more personal discussions related to “how is everybody doing” – a letting your hair down type of scenario. We need to address the person in totality; work life balance is critical. The reality of life requires that we adapt and effect balance. 

Think about it, which country across this region has had a complete lock down? The answer is none – there are industries and businesses that have operated no matter what, to meet critical needs. 

Peisha Bryan-Lee: Diversification has been a constant in discussions around economic development. It has also been featured in discussions around building resilience to shocks such as COVID-19. Could you expound on your views regarding diversification?

Joseph Cox: (in the post COVID-19 era) Lack of diversification has led to severe economic decline and the possibility of increased debt etc. for several countries. Lack of diversification comes with heightened concentration risk and makes you less resilient.  However, spreading yourself too thin will not allow for the critical mass needed for success. Conversations around diversification must also take into consideration financial and cash flow management. At the national level, there is scope and need for economic diversification. Diversification at the company level is also needed. This includes diversifying the product base and service offerings to ensure resilience. 

Peisha Bryan-Lee: Your arguments have highlighted the need for diversification from the macro to micro levels. 

Joseph Cox: The linkage between the state led policy space and business operations is to be highlighted.

Peisha Bryan-Lee:  Our conversation has sadly come to an end.  Thank you, Joseph, for taking time out of your very busy schedule to talk with me, and for well over an hour. 

Joseph Cox: It was my pleasure.  I just want to highlight that the publication is free of cost.  At the end of each of the chapters, we have electronic links to additional readings/source material. As the name of the publication suggests, it is a primer – the areas covered have been the topic of numerous books. As a region, many persons do not believe that intellectual contributions, such as books and policy recommendations are worthwhile unless they come from external sources. There are several regional works that provide relevant localized solutions and I suggest that we read and utilize these works. 

You may download “The New Normal: A Post-COVID Primer for Business” at https://caricom.org/the-new-normal/the-new-normal_compressed.pdf

Disclaimer: The views expressed in the interview are those of the interviewer and interviewee.  They do not necessarily reflect the views of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ).  The PIOJ in presenting the book is not signalling endorsement.

[1] Trade, Services, Tourism, Transport, ICT, Energy, Agriculture, Environment

Interview Conducted By: Peisha Bryan-Lee

Programme Director

Vision 2030 Jamaica Secretariat

Book Review: “The New Normal: A Post-COVID Primer for Business” (October, 2021)