Theory of Change (ToC) – Vision 2030 Jamaica–National Development Plan (NDP)

Vision 2030 Jamaica – National Development Plan is built on an assumption that the defined evidence- and results- based strategic plan and implementation framework can serve to create the conditions necessary for the achievement of 4 synergistic and interdependent sustainable development National Goals and 15 National Outcomes by 2030, within a particular contextual and capacity framework. The achievement of these goals and outcomes is equal to the achievement of developed country status. This is the most basic assumption that underpins the Theory of Change of Vision 2030 Jamaica. A Theory of Change (ToC) presents causal relationships between baseline development status, assumptions, strategic development actions, development context and capacity, and planned development outcomes and goals. 



The development context encompasses risks, limitations, opportunities, development actors/stakeholders and resources that impact capacity for implementing a strategic development plan and the translation of outputs into planned development outcomes and impact. It also includes the capacity for effecting development that represents improvement from the baseline conditions to the achievement of medium- and long- term outcomes and targets.  While capacity and capacity development can be located within development context, it is useful to engage in capacity analysis in the development and explanation of a ToC.  This allows for examination of existing capacity for development, capacity building needs and the potential for capacity building based on contextual factors and resources.  

The ToC for Vision 2030 Jamaica is represented in a nested model that includes multiple cascading tiers of ToCs.  The overarching ToC links the national goals and outcomes with the national strategy framework and associated outcomes as well as the global and national context for development.  It supports coherence with the Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and other global frameworks.  This ToC cascades into:

  • the ToCs that link sector strategies and outcomes with national strategies and outcomes, and associated contextual factors
  • the ToCs that link programmes/actions and outcomes with sector strategies and outcomes, and associated contextual factors
  • The ToCs that link inputs and activities with programme outputs and outcomes and associated contextual factors

The overarching ToC for Vision 2030 Jamaica presents a causal relationship, which states that:

  • The implementation of strategic programmatic action based on ToCs for advancing sector strategies will lead to the achievement of sector strategy outcomes 
  • The implementation of sector strategies based on ToCs for advancing national strategies will lead to the achievement of national strategy outcomes 
  • The achievement of national strategy outcomes will lead to the achievement of national outcomes and the achievement of national outcomes will lead to the achievement of national goals.  The achievement of the national goals will result in the realization of the national vision captured in the statement: “Jamaica, the place of choice to live, work, raise families and do business”.  

The review and further build out of the ToC is included in a process to strengthen/develop the M&E Framework and Plan for Vision 2030 Jamaica and the SDGs. Stay tuned for more…