Title of Book: “The New Normal: A Post-COVID Primer for Business”

Author: Joseph B. B. Cox

Reviewer: Peisha Bryan-Lee, Vision 2030 Jamaica Secretariat

The Book Review seeks to examine “The New Normal: A Post-COVID Primer for Business” within the framework of long-term national development planning and the nexus between public and private interests and practice. 

The book “The New Normal: A Post-COVID Primer for Business” provides a thoughtful interwoven analysis of the traditional and “new” business environments. It presents recommendations for navigating the Post-COVID-19 business environment through the creation of strategic and process frameworks and maps that envelope and integrate short term tactical responses with medium- to long- term strategy.  The reviewer also identified the architecture and interlinkages of a strategic framework that involves transformation, diversification, flexibility, contingency, security, accelerated decision-making and rapid response. We can view this approach as one that engages data analytics in strategic planning.  One of the main objectives is to determine and explain value chains and their dynamics in defining long term goals and the interim and forecasted long-term environment, including competitive advantage and gaps. The principle of integrating spatial with temporal planning was evident throughout the book. Mr. Cox highlighted the importance of data analysis around short-, medium-, and long- term action to inform temporal related planning in specific areas, such as pricing.

An important insight from the book, is the importance of time within the context of uncertainty. This extends the importance of time beyond the traditional association with scheduling and measuring efficiency to incorporate a greater appreciation of its function in determining relevance, the level of sensitivity of predictions, and balancing the interplay between tactic and strategy.

In examining the relationships between consumer demand for “value-added”, supply chain management, and business continuity, Mr. Cox skilfully addressed the need to utilize evidence, including that from lessons learned and projections, to manage the value chain in ways that address current and emerging consumer demand while securing business survival, development, and growth. This requires accurate and adaptive analysis of what is required and strategy-driven responses in the “transitional” period, where uncertainty looms.  It also necessitates analysis of what is required in the medium- to long- term to ensure sustainability of value chain engagement and optimized ‘growth and profitability’^[1]. The proposed approach involves sensitivity- and scenario- based loop chain analysis and planning to accommodate possibilities of ‘renewed contagion’ and/or emerging infections and diseases as well as other severe shocks.

Data and strategy driven value chain management is a cross-cutting theme. This involves focus on productivity and profitability through financial, labour and capital management. It also includes market analysis to differentiate shifted/changed versus deferred demand and the development of appropriate strategy-based tactical and strategic responses to address both as well as engage in shaping demand. Developing explanatory models for changes in demand is an important product of the infusion of data in the inputs for planning. The differences between changes in demand owing to supply chain disruptions versus those linked to changes in how we operate in business and personal ecosystems are to be noted. 

Business transformation is a strategic entry point with the nature and depth determined by goals and the requirements to achieve them. Whilst Mr. Cox gives focus to digital transformation to respond to the exigencies of the COVID-19 pandemic, the framework and arguments presented are broadly applicable and can be extended to transformation processes in national development planning. Mr. Cox presents a template that integrates model, process, and organizational thinking in advancing business transformation that represents theory of change, institutional systems and mechanisms, and governance structures and procedures. This includes the creation of flexible pathways in management procedures and plans; the integration of security protocols and tools across domains and spaces, whether physical or cyber space; vertical and horizontal linkage points within and across entities and sectors; and contingencies to respond to shocks and unanticipated outcomes.

These processes are governed by change management, including cultural re-orientation and institutionalization as well as development oriented people management. They are advanced by targeted data gathering and analysis to inform each phase of strategic planning, implementation and monitoring and evaluation (M&E). The determination of risks accompanied by mechanisms for testing, proofing, and quick integration of data and information into “accelerated decision-making” and rapid response is critical. The risks to be considered are associated with the interactions between threats arising from market dynamics and the particular vulnerabilities of individual businesses, whether within and across portfolios, the different value chain representations in conglomerates, and geographic and cultural differentiations within the markets of multi-national entities. The management of these risks requires scenario based determination of the value of assets and best ways of leveraging them – including development, repurposing and disposal – as well as financing strategies, and the utilization of communication and marketing to manage change and optimize results. The adoption of these approaches will strengthen the capacity of businesses to adapt and operate agilely in the short-term while maintaining focus on long-term goals. Within this template, business transformation or market exit are viable responses in advancing long-term goals. In transferring this to the national development context, we are led to include abandoning development models, processes, and frameworks, among the possible responses to lessons learned and broader evidence, in maintaining a long-term goal strategic focus.

Mr. Cox advances an interesting conversation around the linkages between various spheres and dimensions of value, strategy, operational planning, implementation/practice, analytics, and technology. He emphasises the need for coherence across the various functional strategies and with the overall business strategic plan. He also highlights the importance of congruence in the engagement of the various actors that: create macro-level policy and are responsible for macro-level governance; and drive sectoral development and the values underpinning corporate governance, organizational leadership and operations.

He discusses the connections between macro-level state governance and sectoral and corporate governance as part of creating an enabling environment for business. An important related thread is the importance of relevant physical and “intangible” infrastructure throughout the value chain as part of the enabling environment. He notes the linkage between decision-making and the extent of business confidence based on public policy and other state governance tools.  Stability and continuity in policy that integrates social, economic, environmental, legal, and technology related concerns at the macro and micro levels are presented as prerequisites for establishing coherent linkages in the value chain. In so doing, he delves into the different “publics” that form part of the value chain for a business and extends it from the narrow perspective of those directly engaged in the material production of goods and services, and consumption.

Mr. Cox presents a coherent and logical analytical framework for business development within the ecosystem of the state. His specific mention of the issue of philosophy as an ideational underpinning to governance and development models, is important. A preoccupation with pragmatic realism in developing states has largely been accompanied by the continuation of historically rooted importation of ideas, which are siloed, inadequately localized and insufficiently integrated with the systems and practices that are intended to operationalize them. This has resulted in inadequate treatment of state level philosophy and ideology.  Hence, the inclusion here is notable. 

Through a socio-culturally relevant approach, Mr. Cox advances the argument around “philosophical underpinning” and situates it within a framework for advancing structural transformation, inclusion and reducing inefficiencies and ineffectiveness. He explores the necessity of linkages between ‘development principles and economic goal-orientation’ with ‘policy frameworks and strategic action’. He gives focus to creating an enabling environment for policy integration in planning, and policy continuity, partnerships, transparency and accountability.  These he aligns with building trust associated with timely implementation and the reduction of implementation lags.  Mr. Cox also emphasizes the importance of real-time stratified and disaggregated data to anchor policy in more concrete analytical development models. This is particularly relevant within a post-COVID-19 context where the traditional assumptions that have informed projections have been made less applicable and there is a time lag in restructuring data and analytical processes to inform the formulation of more relevant assumptions. 

Within the discourse advanced by Mr. Cox, state governance and management and its relationship with business development can be viewed as a value chain. Gaps in policy, planning and process linkages, as well as incoherence and socio-cultural disconnects are associated with fractured and disjointed macro-economic frameworks. They are also associated with imbalances in spatial, wealth and service distribution as well as insufficient participation in formal economic processes, such as tax incompliance, which undermine the viability and legitimacy of formal systems and structures to deliver on planned outcomes. Mr. Cox also traverses the intersectionality of the provision of private goods and services and their significance to “public good” and financial and social inclusion, such as internet and broadband access. He also addresses the convergence between the mobilisation and leveraging of “public” assets and capital, such as “public” land and the creation of private assets and economic capital. Adequate, relevant, maintained, and adaptable tangible and “intangible” infrastructure is positioned as economic capital as well as an enabler of asset creation and inclusion. The incorporation of human capital building within the context of supply chain transformation and strengthened logistical capacity demonstrates an appreciation for the connections between cognitive engagement, labour productivity and infrastructure in advancing a systems-based approach to adaptation and agility. Mr. Cox’s incorporation of policy recommendations regarding the collateralization of “intangible” assets advances recognition of the higher forms of capital that include large proportions of intangible components, capital building potential and outputs of science, technology and innovation (STI). These higher forms of capital have also been associated with greater levels of social and financial inclusion as they are more inherently merit based and less tied to ascription and inheritance. 

A communications strategy that addresses uncertainty and short-term demands as part of advancing a long-term framework and goals is presented as a critical success factor. In the schema presented by Mr. Cox, “communications” is not reduced to marketing as it serves as an important link between evidence, planning and performance.

In his discussion on customer relations, Mr. Cox delves deeper into the relationship between value, the tenets of strategic planning and practice, analytics, and standards within business models. He demonstrates emphasis on analytics or use of data over data production and retrieval, in business practice. Also, his arguments and recommendations led the reviewer to reflect on the conceptual and operational differentiations between “automation” and “autopilot”.  Within this schema “auto-piloting” is focused on static, standardized processes within the value chain, which are inherently “production value” oriented. On the other hand, “automation” is focused on demand-driven quality assurance which is “customer value” oriented. “Customer value” speaks to not only the value of the customer to the survival and growth of the business, but also what the customer values. Importantly, Mr. Cox not only presents a discussion that allows for an appreciation of these dynamics; he also presents recommendations and describes techniques that can be applied in defining, addressing, and leveraging “customer value”. Mr. Cox highlights the importance of distinguishing “type of service delivered” from “the means used to deliver the service”. Whilst the post-COVID-19 “new normal” requires greater use of technology and electronic engagements, this does not negate or change the need to focus on ensuring customer satisfaction in the quality of engagement and characteristics of the good and/or service.

The examination of “auto-piloting” and “automation” was situated within the context of frameworks for standards and quality assurance and the intersections of these with analytics geared towards defining, explaining, and informing actions regarding value chains. The analytic process includes determining how value is defined and operationalized by various actors; and identifying “how, where, what and when” changes related to value chains.  It also includes the mechanisms for converting information gathered to lessons learned that are transferable to business development.  The analysis of the extent of adaptability and agility of standardized systems and procedures related to “automation” is critical.  Also, critical is the analysis of the extent to which there is on-going/periodic monitoring and review geared towards change and transformation rather than monitoring focused on maintaining routines, status quo, and strategy within an “auto-piloting” schema.  This demarcation of “automation” and “autopilot” allows for their identification within value chains and the development of targeted strategies to address gaps and strengthen systems towards ensuring that both are appropriately leveraged as complementary processes. 

Reviewer’s Recommended Next Step

The book lays the foundation for follow-up work by the author that extends practical support to and/or the development of policy and strategy guides that are situated in localized contexts. Preferably, the guides should cover areas with insufficient regionally derived or adopted models, and up-to-date relevant analysis. These include policy-aligned business modelling; frameworks for strategic planning; methods and tools for evidence- and performance- based management; and sustainability-/resilience- driven agile models for horizontal and vertical diversification within tiered multi-sectoral networks. The tenets of the localized contexts that should underpin and frame analysis and propositions include the size and maturity of economies and markets, extent and inclusiveness of technology and innovation integration, juxtaposition of formality and informality, and societal vulnerabilities.

Closing Thoughts

Mr. Cox presents a comprehensive and thought provoking reader. It strikes an effective balance between theory, model based analysis and application. The importance of philosophy, policy and strategic planning built on credible evidence is an interwoven thread throughout the book. The book postulates the necessity of systems, structural and socio-cultural transformations to effectively engage the new normal and ensure continued adaptability and agility. It is also pragmatic – with clear and logical policy prescriptions, applications, and steps for their integration in business continuity and development processes. Recommendations regarding immediate and manageable steps to address short-term challenges while maintaining long-term growth potential is noteworthy. The regionally-relevant localized analysis and recommendations allow for focus on the identification of comparative advantage and competitiveness that is aligned with regional realities, plans for growth, and development principles. The whole-of-society, holistic, people-centred approach is applicable to spheres of development that extend beyond economic sectors and supports integrated policy and planning.

The book offers a regionally relevant primer for transitioning or upgrading how we “do business” in our various roles, across a range of governance and productivity oriented value chains. It engaged the reviewer to envision next steps for strengthening business sustainability and competitiveness towards shared economic prosperity and the achievement of broader national and regional development goals. 

The “New Normal – A Post-COVID Primer” is a timely intellectual and pragmatic contribution.

You may download “The New Normal: A Post-COVID Primer for Business” at https://caricom.org/the-new-normal/the-new-normal_compressed.pdf

Disclaimer:  The views expressed in the Book Review are those of the Reviewer.  They do not necessarily reflect the views of the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ).  The PIOJ in presenting the Book Review is not signalling endorsement of the book.

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Up Next: Perspectives on the Future of National Development Planning –Post COVID-19 (November, 2021)